Mbilli vs Lester Martínez: what the draw revealed before Canelo
If you want to understand how Christian Mbilli might fare against Canelo Álvarez, start with his last fight. On September 13, 2025, he drew with Lester Martínez over 10 rounds. It was his only non-win as a professional, and it showed both why he is dangerous and where he can be hit.
The result
The official result was a split draw. One judge scored it 97-93 for Martínez, another had it 96-94 for Mbilli, and the third had it 95-95. Mbilli kept the WBC interim title and stayed unbeaten at 29-0-1. In January 2026, the WBC elevated him to full champion.
What Mbilli did well
He started by imposing pressure and volume. Mbilli can sustain a very high work rate, and he turned the fight into a physical grind and a war of attrition.
That is the version of Mbilli that worries Canelo's camp: a fighter who makes every minute count and who does not stop throwing when the other man lands.
What went wrong
Martínez found counters and closed the gap in the second half. Mbilli accepted too many exchanges, entered in fairly linear fashion and gave his opponent chances to hit him cleanly.
The CompuBox numbers favored Martínez heavily:
| Landed | Thrown | |
|---|---|---|
| Lester Martínez | 412 | 980 |
| Christian Mbilli | 273 | 787 |
These figures are unofficial. Different sources have published incompatible totals for this fight, so we treat the official scorecards as the solid fact and the CompuBox numbers as an indication, nothing more.
Why it matters for Canelo
Counterpunching is Canelo's specialty. The same habits that gave Martínez openings are the ones Canelo is built to exploit: the right uppercut when Mbilli leans in, the left hook to the body after a block, and the short hook when Mbilli finishes a combination close up.
Canelo is also a more accurate puncher than Martínez. Against Scull he landed about 54% of his power shots, and he has landed roughly half of them in other recent fights. A more precise counterpuncher against the same entries is the argument for picking Canelo.
Why it may not be a warning
Here is the case for Mbilli. He drew with a dangerous opponent while taking heavy return fire, and he still produced enough work to win a card. That says something about his chin, his conditioning and his willingness to keep going.
It also means he may have learned from it. A fighter who has been punished for entering in a straight line can adjust, and Marc Ramsay has trained champions before. If Mbilli uses the jab and angles more against Canelo, the equation changes.
What to watch in Riyadh
- Whether Mbilli changes his entries. If he steps off the line after combinations, he has learned the lesson.
- How he handles the first hard counter. Absorbing it and continuing is what the Martínez fight suggests he can do.
- Whether he fades or finishes strong. He had fewer rounds against Martínez (10) than he will face against Canelo (12).
KEY NOTE
The Martínez draw is a warning and a credential at the same time. It shows the gaps Canelo wants to hit and the engine that could make him pay for taking too long to do it. For the full picture, see our Canelo vs Mbilli prediction and the five keys to the fight.
FAQ
What was the result of Mbilli vs Martínez? A 10-round split draw: 97-93 Martínez, 96-94 Mbilli, 95-95.
When did it take place? September 13, 2025, on the undercard of Canelo vs Crawford.
Who won the CompuBox numbers? Unofficial figures favored Martínez, 412 landed to 273. Treat them with caution.
Did the draw cost Mbilli anything? No. He kept the interim WBC title and was elevated to champion in January 2026.